Friday, 18 March 2011

Bear or Bull? The Fragile Global Economy and Stock Market

By Damian Papworth


Stock markets are made to have their ups and downs. After all, the United States bounced back in the 1920s after a decade of Depression due to what is recorded as the first stock market crash in the world, and for a brief moment in the 1980s, it was thought that the stock market in the States and in a number of countries wasn't going to recover from another nosedive. Playing the numbers is a risk, even in a gentleman's game like the stock market, and whether it's Hong Kong or NASDAQ, analysts have a difficult time of predicting exactly what's going to happen. One thing's for sure, though: no one quite knew what was coming in 2008.

No one has been more confused about recent events in the global economy than the numerous consumers in various countries. It truly came as a surprise to people all over the world when global markets started tanking in October of 2008, mostly because after other near-misses in the global economy, it's mystifying to think that something could go on for so long and end so poorly.

It's no wonder that trouble in the United States could bring a global economy down, especially when the numbers are looked at. A significant chunk of the global economy depends on the economy and the markets of the United States. A number of smaller countries didn't have the pleasure of getting bailed out by their federal governments, with countries such as Iceland going completely broke simply because a country that small could not possibly bail itself right out.

One of the reasons that the last stock market crash led to a global stock market crash is that industry is much more international now than ever before. Large corporations don't simply do business in a single country: they are located on numerous continents, trading in more than one stock market, and generating large revenue by conquering the global market. Thus, if investments and capital are tied in on such a wide scale, it's no wonder that something that upsets the balance of one or two markets could continue to ripple and have such a far-reaching impact around the world.

It's possible for Americans to try their luck on the Hong Kong exchange and for those in Europe to buy a great deal of stock in a publicly-traded American company. And the business whose job it is to regulate these sort of trades, as well as the investment companies dealing in mortgages, are supposed to have systems in place to sound the alarm if things start to go downhill.

Unfortunately, in the past ten years, that hasn't happened fast enough. With the real estate market booming in the United States, a number of different companies represented on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange by hordes of high-strung brokers were dealing in mortgages that the borrowers could never have possibly paid back. When the banks and mortgages houses finally got wind of what was happening, everyone made such a fuss about backing away quickly that the economy went right with them.

This mess further spread to the markets, with the price of stocks tanking as people tried to get out while they still could. In the United States and in many European countries, digging the country's banks out of this mess meant federal dollars going towards non-government institution's financial recovery, with hopes of reinvigorating local economies and eventually, picking the international economy back up.

Understanding the global stock market is difficult for regular people, especially in such difficult economic times, but it's always helpful to keep one fact in mind when trying to keep up with the financial news on television and the radio, as well as in the newspaper: the recent occurrences were baffling trained watchers and economists, so whatever doublespeak or deception is currently in place, it was designed not just for regular people to miss, but for highly trained professionals.




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