Saturday, 21 January 2012

The Right Way To Anticipate Just Where Silver Prices Could Possibly Drop

By Jaroby Lewis


In late September of 2011, the current silver prices per oz. dropped about 25% in two days. The price of gold dropped sharply too, but not as sharply as silver. The reason given by analysts is that investors sold profitable investments to pay for stock market losses. What triggered the losses would be a darkening view of world economies. Economic growth is slowing around the world. What most analysts do not mention however, is the fact that when the real inflation rate of the country's currency is factored in, growth isn't just slowing, but is already negative. For instance, if a country's GDP keeps growing at a healthy 4% annual rate, but inflation is 6%, the real growth of GDP is minus 2%. World economic conditions are much worse than even most avid readers of financial publications realize which means the high probability of an extended period of depressed silver prices.

Before I continue, I wish to distinguish between silver investing and silver "insurance." I consider the possession of silver bullion to be insurance against erosion of asset value because of high inflation and the possibility of economic meltdown.

Silver investing is much more most likely to utilize stocks, investment, and electronic traded funds (ETF's).

Websites that publish precious current silver prices per oz. include four metals. So as of price per ounce recently, they are platinum, gold, palladium, and silver. In terms of price, silver is a very, very distant fourth. While considered precious due to price, platinum and palladium are industrial metals. By far the greatest utilization of both is catalytic converters for automobiles. The cost per ounce reflects the scarcity in accordance with gold. The relative price of palladium to platinum reflects the efficiency of these two metals within their use in the production of catalytic converters. When world economies fall under a deep depression, interest in palladium and platinum will drop significantly and thus will price.

Although silver is listed a treasured metal, the investment community looks upon silver getting an industrial metal. This year, 51% from the silver mined was consumed by industrial applications. For above 20 a long time, the price of silver has not reflected its scarcity in accordance with gold. While the ratio through the value of gold for the price of silver dropped greatly in 2010 and the 1st 1 / 2 of, I expect a reversal for that purpose that ratio. Which is; the value of gold will continue its upward trend as while the price of silver will probably fall and remain depressed for any while. I think the gold to silver price ratio will approach 100:1 once again.

Why will the price of silver drop and remain down? When economic conditions worsen worldwide, industrial interest in silver will decrease. Temporary speculators investing on margin will sell, sell, and then sell.

How long will the buying current silver prices per oz. stay down? That is impossible to express. What will eventually push silver higher is going to be investment demand; people and institutions pulling silver bullion from circulation. I expect that to happen after the gold bubble starts inflating and investors turn to silver as a low-priced alternative.




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