Wednesday, 9 November 2011

An Aging Population And Its Effect On A Future World

By Byron Jonas


Families of twelve or thirteen were common until quite recently in human history. After the wars the problem of a 'population explosion' was evident. China took steps to prevent a looming catastrophe by imposing a 'one child' policy. Now such steps to curb overpopulation are churning out an inevitable consequence of populations that are getting alarmingly old. Longevity and infertility lead to an aging population the world over.

In some countries - usually those with large Muslim populations - fertility does not seem to be such a problem and countries like Afghanistan and Egypt have a predominance of young people, many of whom are restless and unemployed. However, in Japan about 20% of the population is over the age of sixty-five.

Statistics suggest that violence and insurrection is likely to befall countries that have predominantly youthful populations especially when the youths are male. One positive thing about countries with older populations is that there are less likely to be people dancing noisily in the streets and setting fire to government buildings. However, problems can be more catastrophic, if less dramatic.

In England and America where the proportion of people at retirement age may be between 12% and 15 % of the population the run on pension funds is considerable. However the number of younger people joining the work force and paying into these same funds is declining. For insurance and pension fund managers very dark clouds gather on the horizon. For people who have reached retirement age and been forced to retire the clouds are not only black, but lightening is flickering about them. Where a pension once seemed as secure as the Earth upon which we live, it is now clear that such is not the case. Even the Earth is not all that secure.

It became apparent some time ago that problems would be brewing so pensioners were encouraged to switch from a system where the employer was responsible for maintaining increases to one in which they themselves became responsible. Additionally, governments in countries like England are considering the inevitability of raising the retirement age to seventy so that pay outs will be pushed back into an uncertain future.

In China a one child policy was introduced some years back to counter the population explosion danger. An even bigger problem may await single children who in time will find themselves carrying the burden of parents who are still expected to retire at sixty, leaving jobs for the corps of young people which will in the near future be drastically reduced in numbers

Problems associated with an aging population pervade the world, mostly in countries that are economically developed. They are unlikely to go away. The future will be shaped in ways that cannot be foreseen by demographic and technological developments that are currently falling into place. It may be that the world will be a better place for having a larger proportion of wiser, older people.




About the Author:



No comments: