Saturday, 25 June 2011

What's New In The Japanese Economy?

By Jack Wogan


For those of us who need to make sure investments, the world context is now troublesome. Uncertainty has touched protection against inflation and real benefits from capital growth. The general situation has also affected those advanced economies which have not suffered directly from the effects of the recent world crisis, even if to a slighter degree. But further decrease came out of the blue in the case of Japan.

The Japanese economy, the third economy of the world, has undergone contraction both in the last quarter of the last year. The last year's figure is 0,8% and this year's quarterly figures have surpassed the expectancies of the experts. Based on these, a total figure of 0.7% GDP decrease has been now proposed for the entire year of 2011, after the threefold disaster that has stricken Japan on March 11. The country has officially entered recession, after having undergone the sixth largest earthquake ever measured, the tsunami wave that followed and the nuclear emergency which occurred as a result. In spite of all these, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) experts say that in the second half of the year the economy is expected to resume its increase.

The ongoing electricity and nuclear crisis have determined the financial specialists to predict a slow recovery for the Japanese economy. The immediate necessities after the earthquake have been financed by supplementing the budget with 33 billion. As a follow-up, the Prime-Minister is preparing an already contested request to the Parliament, asking for authorization for the release of bonds and for a second budget to be calculated in August on behalf of the Government.

Estimations point out that the country's debt will increase to 219% of the GDP. Besides reconstruction, the Government is expected to schedule reducing it as another of its priorities. A global tax reform that will result in fiscal consolidation is what Japan needs now, in the International Monetary Fund's opinion. Their experts have proposed the gradual increase of the consumption tax, with all goods sold in Japan being affected by this general indirect tax. This has been estimated to double to 10% by 2015-2016, but a figure as high as 15% has been proposed by the IMF.

An over 40% increase in value of gold and other precious metals has been brought about by the last 2 years' climate which is insecure for investments and of which Japan is a part. Gold and silver have been regarded as a "safe haven" from the recent turmoil in the financial world, with governments in debt, by investors. The safest form of gold like physically allocated gold coins and bars can be bought from specialized sites. Online specialists offer gold which is stored and insured freely after purchase, at prices which often go beyond market rates for a 1 kilo bar.




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