Monday, 20 June 2011

Inflation Has Hit US

By Jack Wogan


The two huge deficits - the budget deficit and the trade deficit - are the main causes of the decrease in the value of the US dollar. How come? Intimidated by the largest debt their country has ever had, the US government considered, in principal, two steps for coping: to borrow money or, later, to make heavy use of the printing press, creating plenty of money, both steps with nasty repercussions on the said currency. Firstly, when you borrow money, you have to think about giving it back and the interest you have to pay till then. Secondly, printing money as you'd print newspapers is sure to lead sooner or later to inflation, in short, to the weakening of the purchasing power of the relevant currency.

The Federal Reserve printed at first an amazing amount of 1.75 trillion dollars, which, nevertheless, didn't seem to be sufficient. So, over the last two years, other 1 trillion dollars have been made out of thin air, each of them decreasing the value of the existing ones. Facts are stunning: since 1913 when the Federal Reserve appeared on the scene, the dollar has lost 95% of its buying power! No wonder then the dollar has undergone an incredible decline against other major currencies, hitting record lows in the last 10 years. So, it seems that the printing press wasn't quite the right answer to financing the twin deficits.

Besides, if currency depreciation rates are higher, therefore inflation is apparent, devaluation cannot be far, and creditors are sure to keep this in mind when collecting their interest. They can even resort to selling the dollars they have, in exchange for the US foreign reserves, which, of course, puts pressure on the government to proceed to devaluation. Trade deficits, on the other hand, can also oblige the government to decrease or renounce their fixed rate policy, which again means sure devaluation.

Besides, inflation has made the dollar decrease not only by comparison with foreign currencies, but also with hard assets, such as precious metals. Thus, the Federal Reserve printing lots of dollars to deal with the budget deficit has had as an outcome a depreciation of the national currency. Fortunately, while this obviously affects any other investment in dollars, it doesn't the investment in gold.

As such, why not investing in this hard asset, in the traditional manner, by buying gold bars? You can trade them at major banks or bullion dealers, in the size you wish (such as 1 kilo bar), though small sizes are advisable, for avoiding the risk of forgery.




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